Consensus remained elusive on a common BRICS currency as business leaders from the five-bloc nations debated the pivotal issue at a business forum on the periphery of a summit of the five-member bloc being hosted here by South Africa. In their two addresses at the Summit so far, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have made no or scant references to the issue either. "The BRICS Business Forum discussed the international payments system in detail. "Participants also debated the question of whether a BRICS currency is possible or desirable, with strong views expressed both for and against and little consensus reached," Sim Tshabalala, chief executive of Standard Bank Group, told several hundred captains of industry from the partner countries and over 40 other nations across the globe at the Summit.
Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse expects the economy to continue to show positive surprises and record up to 9 per cent growth in the next fiscal. For the current financial year too, the brokerage anticipates growth to be higher than the consensus forecast of 8.4-9.5 per cent, and printing in at around 10.5 per cent. As a policy, Credit Suisse does not provide absolute growth numbers in its forecast.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for the current financial year, lower than 5.4 per cent in the last fiscal. Assuming a normal monsoon this year, CPI (consumer price index-based) inflation for the current year is projected at 4.5 per cent, with Q1 at 4.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.8 per cent, Q3 at 4.6 per cent, and Q4 at 4.5 per cent.
The United Nations on Wednesday pared down India's growth forecast by 20 basis points to 5.8 per cent for 2023 calendar year, citing higher interest rates and risks of recession in the developed world weighing on investment and exports. "Economic growth in India is projected to moderate in 2023, with higher interest rates weighing on investment and slower global growth weakening exports," it said in its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report. The report has projected global trade to contract 0.4 per cent and the world economy to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2023.
'Compare the new slabs with the previous years to understand if your tax liability will increase or decrease after the Budget.'
Release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues are likely to drive stock market movement this week, according to analysts. Markets will also be reacting to remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they said. "This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday started discussions to firm up the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations that it might retain status quo on interest rate but change its monetary policy stance amid rising inflation on account of geopolitical developments.
Withdrawing a blanket ban on overseas shipments of non-basmati white rice, the government on Saturday imposed a floor price of $490 per tonne and exempted the commodity from export duty. Exports of non-basmati white rice have been banned since July 20, 2023 to boost domestic supply. "The export policy for non-basmati white rice (semi-milled or wholly milled rice, whether or not polished or gazed) ...is amended from prohibited to free, subject to MEP (minimum export price) of $490 per tonne with immediate effect and until further orders," the directorate general of foreign trade (DGFT) said in a notification.
Passenger vehicle wholesales in India touched a record high of 42,18,746 units in the financial year 2023-24, registering a year-on-year growth of 8.4 per cent on the back of robust demand for utility vehicles, industry body SIAM said on Friday. As per the latest data issued by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the overall passenger vehicle dispatches stood at 38,90,114 units in fiscal year 2022-23. Two-wheeler sales were up 13.3 per cent last fiscal at 1,79,74,365 units, as compared to 1,58,62,771 units in the financial year 2022-23.
The BJP losing its outright majority and relying on allies to form a government could pose challenges for the more ambitious elements of reform agenda like land and labour, Fitch Ratings said in a note on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP lost its majority for the first time since 2014, winning 240 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha.
Many who track the ministry and the technology sector closely believe that the space won't see much impact on the policymaking side, but the gestation time for regulations might get long, as now there could be a wider consensus-building exercise on policy matters under a coalition government.
'The problem is that the bubble may not only be in valuations, but also in investors' minds.'
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
'The private sector believes that some enablers in labour-intensive sectors like apparel, toys, tourism, and media retail, can unlock a lot of jobs.'
There are various estimates of India's debt to GDP ratio, but the consensus is that that it would be over 80 per cent at the end of the current fiscal year.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
The panel may include or seek inputs from former RBI Governor Urjit Patel, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, Sajjid Chinoy of the PM-EAC, Rathin Roy, among others.
Rs 5,000 crore additional liquidity facility to be provided by the National Housing Bank to boost liquidity in housing sector, the RBI said.
To enable widen the fiscal deficit beyond the permissible limit under the present legislation, the government may have to propose amendment to the FRBM Act in the Finance Bill.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
IT and interest rate-sensitive bank, realty, and auto stocks ended with sharp gains.
'The BJP's numbers in this government are almost the same as those enjoyed by the Congress under P V Narasimha Rao when the reform process was kicked off in 1991.' 'As before, the only constraints on the prime minister's actions are internal, not external.' 'They come from his own assessment of the political consequences of any action,' points out Mihir S Sharma.
Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced income tax relief for the middle class, a Rs 2 lakh crore outlay for job creation schemes over the next five years and a spending splurge for states run by her party's new coalition partners as she unveiled the Modi 3.0 government's first budget after the general elections.
Retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March mainly due to cooling food prices, inching towards the Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.09 per cent in February and 5.66 per cent in March 2023. Previously, CPI-based inflation was the lowest at 4.87 per cent in October 2023.
There hasn't been any dramatic moment in the first act (the Budget) but nobody would complain. It's par for the course as long as the figures don't change in the main Budget, which will be presented after general elections.
The avoidable stresses and strains in ties helped in one way. It showed for the entire region how a matured India handled diplomatic relations, especially with a smaller and suspicious neighbour, with practised dignity and patience, unruffled by provocations in word, deed and action, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
IT company Infosys on Thursday said its consolidated profit jumped 30 per cent to Rs 7,969 crore in the fourth quarter ended March 2024. The company posted a profit of Rs 6,128 crore in the same period a year ago, according to a regulatory filing. The consolidated revenue of Infosys during the reported quarter increased by 1.3 per cent to Rs 37,923 crore from Rs 37,441 crore in the same quarter a year ago.
The Budget should use the extra RBI surplus to better effect, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said inflation management cannot be "singularly" left to the monetary policy as a majority of activities are outside its purview in the current context. Speaking at a seminar organised by economic think-tank Icrier, the finance minister said that both the fiscal policy and the monetary policy have to work together to contain inflation. Consumer price index (CPI) based inflation or retail inflation is ruling above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent since January.
Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
'I found it unbelievable that L&T said 45,000 jobs were waiting to be filled because of unavailability of suitable skillsets.' 'So, when the Opposition sweepingly says there are no jobs, I'm sorry... I'm not saying it's raining jobs, but there are jobs. The (skill) gap has to be bridged.'
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
The government Rs 20 lakh crore package includes Rs 1.7 lakh crore of fiscal stimulus announced in the first phase, Rs 5.6 lakh crore stimulus provided through various monetary policy measures and Rs 5.94 lakh crore through the second phase, implying Rs 6.70 lakh crore package is still to be announced.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Thrust on infrastructure and capital expenditure is expected to continue in the Union Budget for FY25.
'We have essentially tried to set out an agenda for the next five years and it, in essence, represents the political commitment to that agenda.'
These are the highlights of the seventh bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2019-20 by the RBI amid COVID-19 pandemic:
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) job to bring down inflation is not over, and any premature move on the policy front could undermine the success achieved so far on the price situation, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. RBI's rate setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), had met for three days from February 6-8. The panel decided to leave the key policy rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent for the sixth time in row.
Global financial services firm Nomura has sharply lowered India's growth forecast for this fiscal to 5.8 per cent, way below the government's projection, saying the country's monetary and fiscal policies are at loggerheads.
